Travel begins to pick up
To Go or Not to Go?

Editorial by Patrick Totty

Slowly but surely the indicators show that the travel industry is beginning to pick up:

In May, comScore Networks, an Internet research company, reported that U.S. consumers spent nearly $13 billion between Jan. 1 and May 4 at online travel sites. That figure was a robust 28% increase over the same period in 2002.

In our own discussions with travel agents and tour operators, they tell us that not only are phones starting to ring as people realize summer is upon them, many people are signing up for trips months in advance. “Until just recently, nobody was committing to trips so far out,” one of our advertisers told us. “Now you can sense travelers’ confidence returning – they’re willing to make long-range plans.”

Several factors are bringing on this rising demand:

• The end of combat in Iraq has calmed down the jitters that come with war. The Middle East is relatively stable, which affects people’s perceptions of travel to such places as Europe and Asia.
• Americans have been “cocooning” since 9-11 and they’re getting cabin fever.
• The onset of summer is rousing a dormant desire to travel. AAA reports that even with fairly high gas prices and a sluggish economy, this year’s Memorial Day travel equaled last year’s.
• Word is out in Europe that despite its differences with the U.S. over foreign policy, it’s good to be nice to American tourists and travelers. Reports coming back from France and Germany say that Yanks generally are being treated well.
• It’s not going to last much longer, but airlines are still offering bargain fares. Travelers are realizing that taking a big trip may be a now-or-never thing – the airlines cannot afford to bleed themselves much longer in order to generate passengers.

We’re not trying to paint an overly rosy scenario. We know that travel remains inconvenient in many ways, and that there’s no real way to completely stamp out fears about terror. But we also know that the odds against a catastrophic experience are almost astronomical.

Recently a travel expert on KGO radio in San Francisco gave two examples of how people can cheat themselves out of good travel experiences by not understanding how much the odds favor them. He said a couple from Detroit cancelled plans to visit Cairo because of concerns they might be subjected to violence there. He told them that statistically they were 22 times more likely to be assaulted in Detroit than in Cairo. The couple cancelled anyway.

Another traveler, from Manhattan, wanted to cancel a trip to Jerusalem, fearing the same thing. He told her that she was five times more likely to be assaulted in Manhattan than she was in Jerusalem. She, too, cancelled.

In the end, we all have to decide our levels of comfort. For now, though, it seems that many people’s level of comfort with travel is returning in spades.

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