A look at where travel is safe

Editorial by Patrick Totty

Like the elephant in the living room that people politely pretend isn’t there, the topic of travel safety won’t go away even if people won’t discuss it. We know that it’s still a major concern in many people’s minds. Here’s look at the current state of travel safety, and how the events of 9-11 continue to change the face of travel.

Group tours are morphing into smaller affairs. People rightly perceive that large groups invite more attention and possible hostility than people traveling solo or in small groups. The era of busloads of North American or European tourists alighting at some overseas tourist attraction is ending. Travelers who can afford it are now looking for tour hosts willing to take on small groups that will not draw attention. They’re also looking for hosts who can show them off-the-beaten-path places that are less likely to be the targets of attacks.

North Americans are developing a European sensibility about the dangers of travel. For years, Europeans have routinely traveled despite having to live with intrusive baggage inspections and the presence of heavily armed soldiers at their airports and train stations. Europe, with its far more volatile politics than Canada or the U.S., has been plagued for years by terrorists of many stripes who prefer to detonate explosives rather than expound politically palatable ideas.But because of the heavy presence of security at major transportation hubs, these groups find it hard to target airports and railroad depots.

Travelers are dividing the world into places where it is safe to travel and places where it is not. Given the randomness of much violence, safety is a relative term. But some countries, by virtue of their size, infrastructure, general lack of corruption and distance from global hotspots, are statistically far safer than others. Below are three categories travelers are using to divide the world into some sensible order. (For terms of this discussion, “First Worlders” means members of affluent societies that with free market economies and authentic political democracies: North Americans, Europeans, Japanese, Taiwanese, South Koreans, Australians and New Zealanders.)

Safe places include:

• The United States 
• Canada 
• Europe, with the exception of some of the Balkan states. Greece has a number of anti-American terrorist groups that operate with tacit government tolerance, but attacks on westerners are usually limited to American diplomatic and military personnel. Northern Ireland, despite The Troubles, is statistically safer than most U.S. big cities. The same applies to Basque separatist activity in northern Spain.
• Australia and New Zealand
• Japan
• South Korea
• China and Taiwan
• South Sea islands – Tahiti, Guam, Fiji, New Caledonia
• Chile – An increasingly prosperous state with a rapidly developing economic and politically democratic infrastructure
• Costa Rica – A stable democratic state that generally likes First World travelers.
• Belize – Same as above.
• Cuba – The Marxist oligarchy here is especially good at social control, thus, few unpleasant (or authentic) experiences for travelers who do as they’re told.
• Uruguay – They don’t call it “The Switzerland of South America” for nothing. Not a lot going on, but a thoroughly courteous, pleasant, easy-going country.

Reasonably safe to somewhat dangerous places. “Dangerous” here usually means corrupt officials, high crime or location near a volatile area. Much of the world falls into this category. If you don’t go blundering into guerilla strongholds, offend local morals and sensibilities, or sass local authorities, you should have a nice time.

• Philippines – The southern islands are more prone to activity by Muslim and Marxist extremists
• Mexico – Reasonable precautions (proper insurance, a knowledge and when and whom to bribe) can protect against the worst of this country’s endemic corruption
• Brazil – The economy is doing much better, but it takes time for its benefits to filter down. In the meantime, official corruption and street crime are facts of life
• Peru – Volatile politics involving Marxist insurgents means some parts of the interior can be dicey
• Argentina – Recent economic hardships make theft and robbery against affluent people more likely
• All other Latin American nations (unless mentioned in the category above or below)
• Jordan – Though it’s smack in the Middle East, Jordan has always walked a fairly moderate line. Though it has (chilly) diplomatic relations with Israel, it also booted out the PLO in 1970 when Arafat challenged King Hussein’s sovereignty
• Egypt – You pays your money, you takes your chances. Lots of militancy and anti-Semitism here in the press and universities, but the authorities are jealous of their political prerogatives and keep the fundamentalists under a pretty tight rein
• Libya – Col. Khadafy has been very polite since his near-death experience with U.S. bombs in 1986. The result is a country that is reasonably receptive to First Worlders and safe to travel in
• Russia – See Brazil
• Iran – Most westerners returning from recent trips to Iran report feeling fairly safe and well treated there. A U.S. war against Iraq will destabilize Iran, which could produce a backlash against American travelers by the increasingly worried theocracy that runs the country
• Morocco – Given its long and usually harmonious association with Europe, this nation is friendly to First Worlders
• Turkey – The Muslim Turks, with their secular state, have no love for Arabic politics or for political groups that espouse them. Safety concerns here are the usual in a developing country where clout, not plenty, determines the distribution of resources
• Thailand
• Cambodia
• India
• Vietnam
• Most of sub-Saharan Africa unless mentioned below

Dangerous to highly dangerous places include:

• The Middle East, especially Israel and Lebanon, and including Syria, Yemen, the Sudan.
• Pakistan
• Central Asia – Afghanistan, Kashmir
• Zimbabwe – President Mugabe’s all-out assault on the rule of law and civil society makes this a dangerous place for anybody within its borders.
• Colombia
• Algeria – Militant Muslim fundamentalists have targeted their own fellow citizens in a civil war that, like an internal infection, rages just below the surface. Too much can go wrong here.

Non-sequiturs:

• North Korea – Its control issues make uptight Cuba look like the Burning Man Festival
• Burma – Limited tourism and no real antipathy toward First Worlders who mind their own political business, but you have to put up with an insular, suspicious government.
• Saudi Arabia – Tourists not allowed, so don’t bother unless you’re a Muslim making the haj.